RANGE MODEL / EVIDENCE

What Supports This Assumption?

Turn what you know into a forecast input you can explain.

Fictional learning example. Comparable recent CTR observations support a 5.0% choice. Scenario ranges are illustrative choices, not calculated confidence intervals.

01 / EVIDENCE

What have you observed?

Forecast groupAssumption typeAssumption nameEvidence source

Observed values or historical factsWhere did they come from?

Add dates, relevance and caveats

Evidence date rangeWhy is it relevant to this group?Tracking / sample caveat

Optional learning question

Which one is evidence?The metric name “CTR”.Observed CTR of 4.8–5.2%, from a named report.The 5.0% chosen for next year.