Evidence over familiarity
Use relevant first-party results or genuinely comparable evidence. Label judgement when evidence is thin.
FROM THE BIC TOOLKITUseful objects for a slightly broken internet.
ASSESS / ARTEFACT 014
How Broken Is Your SEO Forecast?
60 seconds. 12 questions. No email-shaped ambush.
Find the weakest parts of your forecasting process and get three practical repairs.
Runs locally in your browser. No answers are collected.FORECAST CONTROL UNITQUESTION 01 / 12
Baseline
Nothing you answer is sent or stored. Anonymous interaction events contain only the question number and final result.
HOW TO ASSESS AN SEO FORECAST
A useful forecast is more than an uplift number.
It makes the baseline, evidence, plausible scenarios, delivery assumptions and review process visible enough to challenge. This assessment checks the machinery around the number, not whether somebody can make a spreadsheet look confident.
WHAT MAKES AN SEO FORECAST CREDIBLE?
Assumptions people can see, test and update.
Ranges over false precision
A range does not remove uncertainty. It shows which assumptions change the decision instead of promoting one central estimate into a promise.
Delivery inside the model
The live date, dependencies and response time belong in the forecast. If the work slips, the answer should change.
Review as part of forecasting
Keep the original forecast, compare it with reality and carry what you learn into the next model.
THE SIX PARTS OF THE RANGE MODEL
Six checks. One less fragile number.
Baseline
What happens over the same period if the work does not happen?
Group
Which pages, queries or tasks behave similarly enough to share assumptions?
Evidence
What supports the expected change, and how strong is that support?
Scenarios
Which plausible outcomes belong inside the range?
Delivery
What has to ship, when, and how quickly could impact build?
Review
What actually happened, and what should change next time?
The score is deliberately simple: each answer is worth 0–3 points, each stage is worth six points and the 36-point total is converted to a percentage. No mystery weighting. No maturity-model theatre.
Use the full Range ModelSEO FORECASTING FAQS
The useful answers, without the fog.
What is an SEO forecast?
An SEO forecast estimates a plausible future outcome from organic-search work using assumptions about demand, visibility, click-through rate, conversion, delivery and other relevant variables.
Why use a range instead of one SEO forecast number?
Because the inputs are uncertain. A range or scenario model makes uncertainty visible and shows how different assumptions affect the outcome.
What is an SEO forecasting baseline?
The baseline estimates what is likely to happen if the proposed SEO work is not carried out. It prevents all future performance from being incorrectly credited to the intervention.
How often should an SEO forecast be reviewed?
Use planned checkpoints appropriate to the work. Compare assumptions with emerging evidence and update the model when something material changes.
Does this assessment tell me whether my forecast will be accurate?
No. It evaluates the forecasting process and how transparent its assumptions are. It cannot guarantee the future outcome.
Built from the forecasting framework behind James Yorke's BrightonSEO 2026 talk, From Rankings to Ranges: How to Forecast SEO in 2026.
The assessment remains useful without the talk. The jokes are aimed at forecasting habits, not at the person completing it.