A fictional ecommerce example that turns one precise-looking SEO forecast into visible assumptions.
PRACTICAL COMPANIONFICTIONAL EXAMPLE / BROWSER-LOCAL
FROM RANKINGS TO RANGES
The SEO Range Model
Build an SEO forecast that helps someone make a decision - without pretending uncertainty has disappeared.
Most SEO forecasts turn several uncertain assumptions into one precise-looking number. This model keeps those assumptions visible.
The practical companion to From Rankings to Ranges: How to Forecast SEO in 2026 by James Yorke.
The purpose of an SEO forecast is not to predict one number perfectly.
It is to help someone make a better decision under uncertainty.
01 / A forecast is a testable decision case, not a promise.02 / A ranking is evidence, not a traffic forecast.03 / Delivery assumptions belong inside the forecast.
THE SIX-STEP MODEL
Build the decision case.
Work through the six steps in order or jump to the part you need. The fictional running-shoe example is already loaded so you can understand the method before replacing it with your own evidence.
COMPLETED EXAMPLE
See the number come apart.
The original interactive running-shoe lab is preserved here. Change the assumptions, reveal the three scenarios, inject a failure and log the outturn.
Open the worked example
Edit the inputs, compare coherent scenarios and test which uncertainty matters most.
Use the method on a real project: baseline, slice, learn, scenario, gate and backtest.
01 / THE PRECISE-LOOKING ANSWER
Forecast this SEO project.
UK ecommerce evaluation queries. Category-template rebuild and internal linking. Twelve-month horizon.
Illustrative figures - not client dataTHE MEETING / BEFORE THE CAVEATS
Would you fund this?
WARNING: SPREADSHEET HAS DEVELOPED CONFIDENCE.
OPTIONAL REALITY CHECK
Can you spot false precision?
Eight short decisions test the judgement behind the spreadsheet. The score is less important than the explanation.
FORECASTING REALITY CHECK
Before the model, inspect your judgement.
SEO forecasting often looks precise because the spreadsheet can multiply. The difficult part is deciding what the inputs mean, what must be true and what could stop the work being delivered.
Take eight realistic decisions, see where your forecast is vulnerable, then build a range that can support an actual decision.
A judgement check
Eight short scenarios about scope, evidence, click behaviour, delivery and learning.
Exposes weak habits
Every answer gets an immediate explanation. The reasoning matters more than the score.
A usable method
Move into the Range Model knowing which assumption deserves the most suspicion.
This is an educational check, not a certification of forecasting competence. A forecast is not a prophecy. It is a visible chain of assumptions used to make a decision.
SLIDES AND RESOURCES
Take the method with you.
Available nowRange Model Starter SheetExcel workbook with formulas and the fictional example.Available nowCompleted running-shoe exampleExplore the calculation and stress-test the range.Available nowPlain-English definitionsForty forecasting terms explained without the fog.Available nowForecasting quizEight decisions about evidence, delivery and uncertainty.
Coming with the final talk packPresentation slidesThis will become a download when the final deck is published.
Coming with the final talk packCited sources and further readingA checked reading list will be added without publishing a dead link.
Questions and follow-upFind James Yorke on LinkedInContinue the forecasting conversation.I am not anti-forecast.